The Curious Constituent: three SF measures could bring more voters to the poll – but at what cost?

November is just around the corner and candidates are still scrambling to reach undecided voters. But their biggest challenge, especially during midterm elections, may be getting voters to the polls – period.

You might not realize this, but there are 131 countries that have better voter turnout than the United States. In San Francisco – where there is no shortage of political activism – only half of eligible voters are likely to vote in any given election.

In San Francisco, lawmakers are trying to change the trend. There are three measures on the ballot this year aimed at increasing voter turnout in the coming years. So what would these measures change and what could it cost?

KALW’s political blogger Mitzi Mock answers these questions and more.

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HANA BABA: Let’s start with Proposition I, the Saturday Voting Act. What happens if this measure passes?

MITZI MOCK: Proposition I essentially calls for a pilot program, where neighborhood polls would be open the Saturday before the Tuesday election in November 2011. If this initiative passes, voters would still be able to vote during the regular Tuesday election or by mail; they would just have the option of going to their local poll on Saturday.

BABA: What do you mean by a pilot program? Is this only a one-time Saturday election?

MOCK: Well, let me back-up for a minute. First, you should know that this initiative was put on the ballot by an organization called Why Tuesday SF. It’s part of a national organization that’s calling for Saturday elections to offset some of the obvious challenges that can come up when trying to vote on a regular workday.

In the case of Proposition I, Why Tuesday SF pledged to raise the money to cover all additional costs of the first Saturday election. The hope is that there will be a spike in turnout and voters will want to keep the Saturday option around in the future.

BABA: How much money are we talking about?

MOCK: The Why Tuesday SF team worked with students at U.C. Berkeley to come up with an estimate, and they think it’s going to cost about $800,000. But the exact amount is actually up to the city controller to determine.

What’s for sure is that the Why Tuesday SF team has to raise all of the money by July 1st of next year.

BABA: What happens if they can’t raise the funds?

MOCK: If they can’t raise the money, then no Saturday election.

BABA: Do you know if other counties are doing Saturday elections?

MOCK: Well, there are other counties that already offer early voting on Saturdays, but it’s often on a limited scale. For example, polls may be open only at city hall.

The goal of this pilot program is to fully mirror the Tuesday election. In other words, to open up all the regular polling spots – like my local polling place, which is held in my neighbor’s garage on Masonic Avenue.

But, again, there will definitely be a significant cost that comes with that kind of upgrade.

BABA: Right, and sustaining that might be difficult.

MOCK: Right. I think that’s the major concern for opponents here. Even if we raise funds for the next election, can we afford it in the future? And is it redundant if vote-by-mail is already an option for those who can’t make it to the polls on Tuesday?

On the flip sides parents could bring their kids to the polls to show them how the process works and get them excited about the idea of voting early on.

BABA: Speaking of parents, there is another measure that tries to bring new parents to the political process.

MOCK: That’s right. Proposition D is a measure which would give non-citizen parents and guardians the opportunity to vote in school board elections. If this sounds familiar it’s because a similar measure was on the S.F. ballot in 2004. That measure actually failed by a slim margin, just a few percentage points.

BABA: Wait a second. Is it legal to let non-citizens vote in any election?

MOCK: Well, I’m definitely not a legal expert. And I think in this case there is a little ambiguity. On one hand, San Francisco would not be the first city to consider making this exception. Places like New York City and Chicago have set a precedent. But there is some ambiguity, but some people including Supervisor Sean Elsbernd, have come out and said that this measure would violate state law.

BABA: Putting that question aside for a moment – if this measure passes, how many families would this affect?

MOCK: Well, of the almost 55,000 students in San Francisco public schools. One third come from immigrant families. There’s now way to know exactly how many of those parents are citizens or not, but it’s not an insignificant number. It’s also unclear how many people would take advantage of the opportunity to vote if it was offered to them

BABA: If this passes, is there any way of knowing how these parents would cast their ballots? And how much would it cost?

MOCK: Well, the City Controller estimates that the city initiative would cost around $100,000 or more. If it passes, the city would have two years to hammer out the details. But I’ve heard talk about the possibility of doing it as vote-by-mail.

It’s difficult to get a good cost estimate by looking at other cities that have allowed other non-citizen parents and guardians to vote. Just to give you an idea, there are three seats open on the San Francisco school board this year. But during Chicago’s last election there were 5,600 seats.

BABA: So if this initiative failed in 2004, what are its chances this time around?

MOCK: This year it has some major political support. Every school board member supports it. Nearly every city supervisor supports it, including board president David Chiu who has really put his political weight behind it.

You also have to consider the political climate here in the wake of Arizona’s anti-immigration law, the controversy over the DREAM Act and the increasing challenges to San Francisco’s sanctuary city policy. In some parts of the country there has been a backlash against immigrants, but in a place like San Francisco, we might actually see a big rally to support these individuals.

BABA: That’s possible. But again, it’s not just about who supports it; it’s about who actually comes out and votes for it. And on that note, let’s talk about the last measure, Proposition E.

MOCK: So Prop E would require the San Francisco Department of Elections to allow same-day voter registration.

BABA: How does that work?

MOCK: Anyone wanting to register on voting day would have to show proof of residency. Then they would cast a provisional vote, which would have to be hand-checked.I should also point out that same-day registrants would only be able to vote in municipal elections.

BABA: Same-day registration sounds convenient for voters, but what could this mean for the Department of Elections?

MOCK: Well, I think there are three concerns that jump to find: extra costs, administrative challenges and obviously, potential fraud issues.

BABA: Okay, let’s start with costs.

MOCK: When I began looking at the issue, I came across a 2009 study conducted by MIT. The study compared the total cost per potential voter in cities with same-day registration and those without and didn’t find a significant difference. For example, the city of Milwaukee, which allows for same-day registration, spends about $3.65 per voting-age person. Los Angeles County, which doesn’t have the same-day option, spends about $3.80 per voting age person.But I also think it’s worth noting that same study found that San Francisco already spends more per potential voter than Los Angeles and Milwaukee combined.

I think the biggest challenges come with administration. Polling place workers would have to deal with registering new voters on top of having to help them cast their ballot and figure out which polling place to go to.

BABA: What about fraud?

MOCK: It’s possible. The MIT study did find a small handful of cases. But, overall, the instances of fraud were very low in the study.

The good news is that there are currently nine states that allow for same-day voting. So if this measure passes, San Francisco has other places to look as it works out all its kinks.

Mitzi Mock is our elections blogger. You can read her roundup of election-related news on her blog, The Curious Constituent.